2nd International Seminar on Probabilistic Methodologies for Nuclear Applications

Picture of the Canadian Parliament

Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

October 25–26, 2017

Hosted by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), this seminar is a technical exchange among experts from regulators to utilities to academia on the practical application of probabilistic methodologies used to evaluate nuclear power plant components.

Seminar format

Presentations related to the application of probabilistic methodologies in nuclear industry applications are currently being solicited. Several presentations followed by discussion will be planned according to the suggested topics below. It is expected that approximately 16 presentations will be scheduled over the course of the two days, followed by an open panel session. Suggested topics of discussion include:

  • Probabilistic fracture mechanics
  • Probabilistic fracture protection
  • Probabilistic leak-before-break
  • Uncertainty analysis
  • Development of input parameter distributions
  • Risk-informed assessments
  • Regulatory acceptance of probabilistic assessments
  • Development of probabilistic modelling software

Background on the seminar

Deterministic assessments that include an assessment of the impact of postulated service-induced degradation for nuclear power plant pressure boundary components can generate conservative conclusions. As a result, there is increased interest in the nuclear industry in the use of probabilistic methodologies to evaluate the risk of component failure, but currently, there are no generally accepted methodologies for conducting these types of evaluations. This seminar provides a venue for sharing information and experience related to the use of various probabilistic assessment methods.

This is the second seminar organized by the CNSC on this subject. The first seminar was in October 2013, with participants from Canada, the United States, Finland, Germany, Romania, Czech Republic and Switzerland.

Call for presentations

Participants wishing to present are required to submit an abstract (200 to 400 words). All abstracts should be submitted by July 31, 2017. (Note: All abstracts and extended summaries submitted by email must be in MS Word, in "Times New Roman 11" font.)

The organizing committee will review abstracts, and authors will be notified by August 15, 2017. Authors of accepted presentations should submit, by email, their extended summary and presentation by October 1, 2017. Presentations are not to exceed 20 minutes.

Suggestion: After the seminar, authors may consider submitting a detailed paper on the content of their presentation to the ASME Journal of Nuclear Engineering and Radiation Science. The journal may accept paper submissions that have been presented at the 2nd International Seminar on Probabilistic Methodologies for Nuclear Applications. For more information visit the ASME Journal website.

Read the list of submitted abstracts.

Location and accommodations:

The workshop will be held in Canada’s capital, Ottawa, Ontario, during Canada’s 150th anniversary year. There will be lots to see and do!

Seminar location:
John G. Diefenbaker Building
111 Sussex Drive, Bytown Pavillion
Ottawa, Ontario

To learn more about where to stay and what to do while in Ottawa, visit:

Ottawa Tourism
Canada 150

Language of the seminar and proceedings material

All presentations and discussions will be in English. A CD containing all presentations will be compiled and distributed at the end of the workshop. Presentations may be published on the CNSC’s website.

Key dates at a glance

Presentation abstracts due by: July 31, 2017
Accepted presenters notified by: August 15, 2017
Extended summary and presentations due by: October 1, 2017
Last day for participation registration: September 15, 2017
Seminar program emailed to participants by: September 15, 2017
Seminar: October 25–26, 2017

Submitted abstracts

Title(s) Author(s) Institution(s)
Regulatory Approach to the Use of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics at Nuclear Power Plants in the United States David Alley   U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, USA
Regulatory Perspective on PFM and Risk-Informed Methodologies in Sweden Björn Brickstad Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Stockholm, Sweden
Developments in Probabilistic Methodologies at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Michael L. Benson, Matthew J. Homiack, Patrick A.C. Raynaud and Mark T. Kirk U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, USA
Guideline on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis for Japanese Reactor Pressure Vessels Yinsheng Li, Jinya Katsuyama and Koichi Masaki Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki-ken, Japan
Efficient Probabilistic Methods for Leak-Before-Break Analysis Klaus Heckmann and Jürgen Sievers GRS Global Research for Safety, Cologne, Germany
Probabilistic Fracture Protection Methodology and Acceptance Criteria for CANDU Zr-Nb Pressure Tubes Douglas Scarth and Leonid Gutkin Danny Mok and Chris Manu Kinectrics, Inc., Toronto, ON, Canada Amec Foster Wheeler, Toronto, ON, Canada
Target Reliability as an Acceptance Criterion for Component Failure within a Systems Approach to Nuclear Structural Integrity Assessment Michael Martin and Keith Wright Rolls-Royce, Derby, UK
Effect of Inspection Sample Size on Reliability of Reactor Components Mahesh D. Pandey University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Structural Integrity Criteria and Performance Acceptance Standards for Fully Probabilistic Assessments of Steam Generator Tubing Russell C. Cipolla Intertek AIM, Santa Clara, CA, USA
Probabilistic Fracture Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Components U. O. Akpan, T. S. Koko and S. Rathnayaka Applied Technology Group, Lloyds Register, Halifax, NS, Canada
Gaussian Process Regression for Classification of Baffle Bolts Failures for Prediction of Spatially Correlated Bolt Failures in Similar Pressurized Water Reactors Joseph Cluever LPI, Richland, WA, USA
Application of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics to Seismic Fragility Analysis of Piping Systems Kisaburo Azuma, Yoshihito Yamaguchi, Jinya Katsuyama and Yinsheng Li Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority, Tokyo, Japan Nuclear Safety Research Center, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Japan
Structural Behavior of Nuclear Piping under Beyond Design Basis Dynamic Loading Xinjian Duan Candu Energy Inc, Mississauga, ON, Canada
A Common Framework to Deal with Uncertainties of Computer Code Results E. Chojnacki, J. Baccou, F. Fouet and P. Probst Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Cadarache, France
Uncertainty Analysis of the Behaviour of Nuclear Fuels Armando Marino Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, Bustillo Bariloche, Río Negro, Argentina
Uncertainty Analysis in Probabilistic Fitness-for-Service Evaluations of Zr-2.5Nb Pressure Tubes Christopher Manu Amec Foster Wheeler, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Leonid Gutkin Kinectrics, Inc., Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Sensitivity Analysis on Input Parameters of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Code, PRO-LOCA 5.0 Sun-Hye Kim, Sang-Min Lee, Ho-Sang Shin and Yong-Beom Kim Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Republic of Korea
Man-Won Kim Central Research Institute, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Republic of Korea
Sun-Yeh Kang KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company Inc., Republic of Korea
Global Sensitivity Analysis of xLPR using Metamodeling Chris Casarez, Markus Burkardt and Glenn White Dominion Engineering, Inc., Reston, VA, USA
Craig Harrington Electric Power Research Institute, Dallas, TX, USA
Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses for Probabilistic LBB Analyses: Methods and Applications Cédric Sallaberry and Robert Kurth Engineering Mechanics Corporation of Columbus, Columbus, OH, USA
Uncertainty Evaluation of CANDU Fuel Performance Based on Statistical Method Kang Moon Lee and Joon Suk Ji KEPCO Nuclear Fuel, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, Korea
A New Benchmark on Probabilistic Integrity Assessment of RPV Miroslav Posta UJV Rez, a. s., Hlavni Husinec, Czech Republic
Determination of Optimal Sample Sizes for Flaw Inspection Using Bayesian Approaches Wenxing Zhou University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada
Speculative Reflections on the Raw Data Scatter Accounting for the Allowable Temperature Shift for RPV Lifetime Assessment I.V. Orynyak and M.M. Zarazovski IPP-Centre Ltd, Kiev, Ukraine
Framework for Probabilistic Methodology Development and Gaining Regulatory Acceptance Elizabeth Holliday Amec Foster Wheeler Nuclear Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
Analysis of Fault Tolerant Design Methods and Architectures for Digital I&C Systems Using the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology Phillip McNelles, Zhao Chang Zeng, Guna Renganathan and Marius Chirila Lixuan Lu Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, ON, Canada University of Ontario Institute of Technology, Oshawa, ON, Canada

Contact information

For assistance with administrative details or for further information, please contact one of the CNSC’s organizing committee members:

Blair Carroll: blair.carroll@canada.ca
Dr. Bogdan Wasiluk: bogdan.wasiluk@canada.ca
Dr. John Jin: john.jin@canada.ca
Dr. Jovica Riznic: jovica.riznic@canada.ca

Primary contact:

Dr. Bogdan Wasiluk
Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
280 Slater Street
P.O. Box 1046, Station B
Ottawa, ON K1P 5S9

Telephone: +1 613 996 0804
Fax: +1 613 995 5086